Time to change. Oh, no, not you – you’re adorable! Time to change your clocks.  Again.  I usually forget which way to set them because “fall back and “fall forward” are equally plausible, as it is for spring.  Just a couple years ago I showed up at work and wondered where the heck everyone was.  (I finally figured it out.)  I blame this on way too many clocks to change.  Every thing has one! Even my space heater – why? And then there is my digital watch, which takes a nuclear physicist to change. Or my technologically advanced husband and children.  They probably work as a team.

For those whose inner Lewis Black surfaces at Daylight Savings Time change, I get it.  It seems to take weeks to adjust your internal clock. Except when it doesn’t. Recently I was in Michigan at a conference—where I barely survived (it got down to the 30s!!). Michigan is on Eastern Time and I magically just switched to that time zone. However, in those 10 days my body must have reverted to my default settings* because now I wake up routinely at 4 am and stay awake until 5 minutes before my alarm goes off.  Then Lewis Black wakes up.

On Tuesday, we can VOTE yea/nay on Daylight Savings.  Please VOTE of course on all of those other things – and there are lots of sites to help inform you on the issues – but this could be your chance stop the falling, springing, back and forth shenanigans and just leave your clocks alone.  For good.

One thing I learned at the conference is how most Americans have greatly UNDER-INSURED their homes. So, get on this.  There are an increasing number of natural disasters and the length, location and severity are shifting too, so make sure if something happens, you have adequate insurance to recover.  Consider earthquake insurance, too. An earthquake is inevitable, possibly a really big one, so please take the time to check your insurance.  Even if you are renting – protect yourself and your property.  Now. Please.

Lastly, nothing says “end of Halloween” like the immediate appearance of holiday decorations.  When I grew up, this time of year was all about family, family gatherings, marathon game sessions (usually euchre) and ice skating.  Because of the snow, outside decorations were usually just a few strings of lights.  Here, however, our always sunny (warm) climate, has allowed my creative side to blossom. This year I was a bit stumped-- at least until I saw (thank you Home Depot for having decorations out so soon!) it -- a beautiful, sparkly, winged unicorn.** And really, what says Be Prepared/Happy Holidays more than a unicorn?  All I need to add is a CERT vest (green) and first aid kit (red). Nailed it.

So, my friends, stay positive, laugh, enjoy your friends and family, vote, and above all, always be prepared for whatever happens.  You are important to me.

PS.  You are receiving this special message because you told me you enjoy my emails.  Whenever that changes, please let me know and I will tearfully remove you from my special email list.  ;-)

*I was born in Michigan where I lived for 25 years. Apparently, I was tougher when I was younger.  Or at least had a better internal heater.  I grew up on a 20 acre farm that had a pond, golf driving range, putting green and 10 acres of the best sweet corn I have ever eaten.

** https://www.homedepot.com/p/Home-Accents-Holiday-72-in-Cool-White-LED-Mesh-Unicorn-TY505-1714-1/305026004 (I know you all want one…)

Yet another thing for your Emergency Kit: Resilience

Watching Hurricane Sandy and the storm’s effects even from afar was horrifying and tragic.  Whether you had friends and family there, or just hated to see suffering and destruction, it seems to leave one with a feeling of dread.  Are storms of this type the new norm?  Is this complete disruption of normal life what it will look like after the “big one” hits, albeit drier?

Maybe it is just us Emergency Manager types that look at these disasters and wonder, “What would I do in this situation?” but I suspect that a lot of people are wondering that same thing.  How does one prepare for, survive then get back to normal after that?  Or does one?

Sustainability has been the buzz word for some time now.  And it is a good idea.  We want to do those things that will sustain us by doing things today that will allow us to continue into the future, in approximately the same comfort, or better, than we have now.

An article in the November 3, 2012 New York Times, has raised its hand in this discussion, however, that made me stop and consider where our focus should perhaps lie…

“… [a] new dialogue is emerging around a new idea, resilience: how to help vulnerable people, organizations and systems persist, perhaps even thrive, amid unforeseeable disruptions. Where sustainability aims to put the world back into balance, resilience looks for ways to manage in an imbalanced world.” (1)

This is not an ad for the New York Times, nor a soapbox lecture on climate change (not that I haven’t addressed that issue), but I wanted to stress how important the concept of resilience is.  Resilience is not simply being tough when needed --  it is being tough before it is needed because you’ve understood how important it was to prepare for disasters in the first place.

We can pretend that future advancement will help us avoid or diminish disasters such as this, but that is probably much more wish than reality.  One must simply look at the weather patterns over the past couple decades and see that our weather has changed and that we better figure out how to deal with it.   One only has to look at the devastation from earthquakes in Japan, Chile and New Zealand and realize that it could just as likely be us on the news one of these days.

This is not the “be scared” tirade.  It is the awareness that things DO happen, regardless of where you live.  Whether a fire, terrorism, floods or earthquakes – things simply do happen.  And to not only survive, but survive well, resilience may well trump sustainability.  Sustainability is a good idea and a great goal, but we need the tools and will power to be resilient and ready.

(1)

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/opinion/forget-sustainability-its-about-resilience.html

Galileo, we feel your pain

This week’s verdict in Italy struck a particularly painful spot for scientists, especially geologists.  Seven seismologists who are highly respected in the geological community, were sentenced to several counts of manslaughter because they did not predict and give sufficient warning to the people of L'Aquila in 2009 that a major earthquake would hit. (1)  In this lovely historic town, over 300 people died, and apparently, the Italian public wanted someone to pay for it.

Galileo, as you all remember, was a brilliant scientist with visions beyond his time who got sentenced to life-long house arrest for bucking the mainstream thought with his crazy idea that the earth revolves around the sun.  He must be rolling over in his grave now wondering why the Italian government still doesn’t get science!

Predictions of anything are tricky.  Take the weather.  Generally, the forecasters are correct for that day but once in a while even a day’s prediction does not turn out the way we thought.  The longer ahead into the future the predictions, the less likely they are correct.  Honestly, I wonder if there really isn’t a big dial they spin, like on Wheel of Fortune, where landing on “Rain” here is like losing a turn.  At least with weather, we can look at the skies, pressure fronts and jet streams to give us a good idea, but earthquakes?  Regardless of those that swear there is “earthquake weather” or that their dog or cat acted funny days before the quake, there really are no good predictors as to when, where or how big an earthquake will hit.

Where does that leave those of us in the business of trying to get people prepared?  I’m a pretty optimistic person who tries to see preparedness as something you do as a positive thing – so bad things will have a minimal impact -- but there will always be some people who need that stab of fear to act.  Remember Chicken Little?  She ran around and got everyone worked up that the sky was falling.  Then she took 5 of her closest friends to the fox who ate them all, where, in Italy, they would have deserved it. 

Truthfully, the sky is not falling.  That is for sure, but there are many other things that are unpredictable in our lives.  But being unpredictable does not mean never.  Earthquakes WILL happen.  A major flood WILL hit Southern California.  A major fire WILL destroy large areas of the county.  When?  I don’t know.  All I am saying, friends, is just be ready for whatever.  There really is a nice feeling in knowing you are prepared.

(1) http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/23/italian-scientist-earthquake-condemns-court?intcmp=239

There's no place like home

Dorothy had to fly, via Whirl Wind Air, I might add, all the way to Oz to realize this.  However, as the Back To School sales pop up everywhere and the once wide-open parking lots begin to fill, we realize that it is that time of year again and that home, the summer hub of activity, changes once again.

Home is where your heart is, where you hang your hat, or any other phrases coined in prose and song.   However, even with its changing titles and roles throughout your life, it is a constant for many.  It’s the place that children drift back to or old friends gather.  Even if it is temporary, such as an apartment or dorm, it is our place of refuge.

Given its esteem, the home should have the honor of being the best place to be should something happen that disrupts the normal.  It could be something fleeting, such as a heavy rain storm, or longer term, such as an extended illness.  Regardless of that unforeseen event, whatever you call home needs to be ready to hold and secure you.

If you live in southern California, the two biggest worries (I should think) would be fire and earthquakes.  Sure, there is that 100-year flood scenario or the more localized, but heart-breaking shooting incidents, but with our seemingly more frequent periods of drought and the San Andreas Fault statistically “ready” to give a good shake, fire and earthquakes are really what we should prepare for.  And when I say “prepare for” I am focusing today on the home.

If one of those events happens and you are not at home, what do you worry about?  Home, of course.  There is no magic bubble to surround your home, although honestly I have not looked at the latest Hammacher Schlemmer catalog..., so you need to do what you can do.  Prepare your home for disasters.

The steps are simple.  Make a list, make a plan, get the stuff, store the stuff, let important people know your plan.  Sure, it will take some time, but the tradeoff is worth it.  Envision – a major earthquake hits and you are at work.  Will you be anxious about your home?  Of course.  But, if you are prepared at home, you will have things set in place to take care of your home and your loved ones.  You will have given a trusty neighbor a key to check your pets.  You will have a plan for where your children will go after school.  You will have a neighborhood plan to shut off your gas line if they smell gas at your meter.  Everyone in your family will have Aunt Bertha’s phone number to call, so she can keep track of everyone.

It’s simple really.  And if you are not convinced, just click your heals 3 times.  I know it works.

The Transit of Venus

It evokes a great mental image.  Especially if you have no idea what it really is, it sounds extraordinary.  Venus is that neighboring planet, the place of fictional unearthly maidens and UFO passengers.  Add “transit” and it suddenly becomes even more mysterious -- something fleeting, moving, un-catchable.  What it truly is, is even more captivating, which is the “transit” of Venus as it passes in front of the sun, an event that happens once only every 120 years!   The complete “transit” is a pair of events, 8 years apart.  The first part of this pair occurred 8 years ago in 2004, and its concluding transit will take place tomorrow, June 5, for North America, and June 6 for European, Asian, Australian and eastern African locations.

Professional and back-yard star gazers alike have been really excited over this event.  Knowing its rare and fleeting image, they have been preparing for months and even years to take a glance at Venus’s starlit performance.  Special filters have been purchased and telescopes positioned.  Flyers and other informational publications abound.  There is almost a carnival-like atmosphere as “She comes to town!”

Preparing for events is a funny thing.  An event, such as the Transit, is exotic, wonderful and a once-in-a-lifetime experience.  People willingly plan, prepare and practice for the event.  However, using these same skills and practices for not-so-wonderful events (AKA, disasters and crisis situations) are difficult, at best, for any but those who treat preparedness on the same footing as buying shoes.

Actually, there are some similarities.  Like the Transit of Venus, major earthquakes in Southern California occur a century or more apart.  Each requires planning to satisfactorily experience.  However, any similarity stops when we come to the timing of the event.  Earthquakes happen—statistically—every so many years.  Specifically, and of interest to those of us in Southern California, the segment of the San Andreas fault, running from Tejon Pass to the Salton Sea, was predicted to rupture with a 7 to 8 magnitude shaker within 20 years – in 1984!

There is no planning for an exact date for an earthquake, only that “someday” it will occur.  No chance to hand out flyers and make some salsa for the event.  It just happens whenever it happens.  For that reason, it is best to plan now for the Transit of Andreas.  We never know when she will come by.

ALSO NOTEWORTHY:  Shirley Hazzard wrote an extraordinary novel also called “The Transit of Venus.”  It’s a beautifully written novel about the journey of two young women who leave Australia for post-war England. I highly recommend it.

The Big One is coming, the Big One is coming!...

On the evening of April 18, 1775, after being rowed across the Charles River, then riding on a borrowed horse, Paul Revere traveled nearly 20 miles along unlit, dirt roads and shouted to residents along the way. “The British are coming!” All the way to Lexington he rode, to let Samuel Adams and John Hancock know that the British were indeed en route and it wasn’t a social visit.

 I am not a doom’s day person, but I do feel the need to warn people that we are “due” for a major (7-point-something) earthquake in Southern California. I blog, I speak, I post, but it really can’t hold a candle to Paul Revere’s heroic and difficult task. In those times, it seemed that people were more tuned into what was happening with their community and their country. TV and computers and video games were not around to distract people from their lives.

But, I am not deterred. Expecting communication and interests to remain constant is futile and silly, so I am looking for my own borrowed horse from which to spread the news – the Internet. Recently, I was shown an incredibly video on You Tube (the name of my horse on the internet) which brought earthquakes events from around the world right to your computer screen. Each shaker was morphed into dots, corresponding to the size of the earthquake, then placed sequentially on a world map to show the time and magnitude of each event. The result is an 8 minute light show of all earthquakes that occurred in 2011.

2011 was a memorable year for earthquakes. (See the Wikipedia entry for this at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquakes_in_2011#January) Notable were the multiple deadly shakers in March in Honshu, Japan, which took the lives of nearly 16,000 people (although most died because of the ensuing tsunami), Christchurch, New Zealand in February and Turkey in October. Also noteworthy was the measly magnitude of 2.7, but notable earthquake in Ohio, the first ever recorded there.

To visualize these events, we thank You Tube. In this video, the introduction in Japanese shows the relationship between the circles and the earthquakes’ magnitudes. You need not know Japanese to understand what they are showing you. Next comes the best part – the entire year in earthquakes flashing in front of you, from January 1st through December 31. It is nothing short of mesmerizing. What is really amazing is the seemingly non-stop flashing of lights in Japan. There is a constant flicker, then, on March 11, it really likes up.

What I like to point out is what is not happening. Specifically, the west coast of the United States is uncannily dark. Hardly a blip of light anywhere. It has been over 300 years since the southern end of the San Andreas fault has had any significant seismic activity and this, to some experts, is way past its due date.

So, take a look and see what you think. Time to get that earthquake ready? Yes, I think so. View the video at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwWn_W6ZbT4. Then I’ll see you at the store -- shopping for supplies.

As plain as the nose on your face

That’s pretty obvious, my mother would say. “As plain as the nose on your face.” Having inherited my honker from my dad, that is, I’d have to say, pretty obvious. Other things are pretty obvious, too, yet people steadfastly don’t see it. Take climate change. Not theory. Not speculated. Not a maybe. It is. There is a preponderance of evidence out there and even without an Excel spreadsheet, the polar bears will tell you, this is real. The last 20 years have been the hottest in at least 400 years. Arctic ice is thawing so rapidly that in another 30 years, arctic summers will be completely ice free! Coral reefs, which are highly sensitive to slight rises in ocean temperatures, have had record die-offs. (1)

There are still some nuts out there who think that this is something akin to the earth’s menopausal hot flash and a natural phenomenon, but look at it this way. Modern society produces tons of atmospheric gases every day, ostensibly creating a planet-sized snuggy that traps in heat. Industrial and auto pollution is an all time high. Why? Because there is an astonishing number of us. Back around 1 BC there were around 300 million people (about the number just in the United States today)in the entire world. It took 2000 years to bump that to 1.6 billion, or about 5 times as many. Then it took only the last 100 years to multiply that another FOUR TIMES to a world population of over 6 billion. There has not been a single other factor or species impacting the earth as much as we are.

Denial is apparently what some people do best and that also applies to getting prepared for emergencies. Now, if you live in Southern California, you WILL experience an earthquake. There is no thermometer to stick in the ground and say, “Wow, the ground is really heating up for a good one,” but the numbers do point to something big. Statistically speaking, earthquakes have occurred along the San Andreas Fault every 150 years or so. The last one was 155 years ago, so we are “ripe” for something. Unlike climate change, we don’t see markers letting us know how close we are to a large seismic event, so preparing it is really hard to get excited about.

Just like substantial climate change, the big one is coming, so let’s do something today. As far as climate change, think more carefully about your impact on the world. Can you walk more than drive? Can you purchase things that require less manufacturing? Can you buy cars that are less polluting? Sure you can. So you can also get a tub for your earthquake supplies. You can put a gallon of water person per day in there and toss in some hardy granola bars. Add a large zip-type bag of toilet supplies and you are one giant step on your way.

So, please, think of yourself, your family, and, if it helps, the polar bears. Some conscientious effort on your part will help us all.

(1) Read a great Op-Ed piece from the LA Times: http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-oreskes-judging-climate-change-20120122,0,6437230.story

It’s what’s on the inside that counts

Those interested in the architecture of an “earthquake-resilient” building have probably heard a similar theory. If a building is flexible, it will move but not break or fall down when shaken in an earthquake. It seems logical, right? In fact, I remember seeing old wooden structures in Japan that had survived hundreds of earthquakes. Rather than fall, they simply went with the flow, swayed a bit, then came back to stand as it had for centuries.

What I never saw in those building photos, however, were the insides.

Last week, I got the chance to take a peek inside. Not those lovely old Japanese structures, but more modern ones after the Santiago, Chile, quake. A specialist called to the site to make damage assessments showed astonishing images. Some structures were visibly broken and required extensive, expensive repairs after that whopping 8.8 magnitude shaker in February of 2010.

The most shocking photos came from those with no exterior damage at all. Large, modern beautiful buildings, some with huge glass fronts, had hardly a hint that it had been shaken – until you opened the front door.

It’s interesting that we know to earthquake-proof our shelves, TV’s cupboards, refrigerators and water heaters at home, yet we completely forget this where we work. In some of the specialist’s examples, the damage from some of these buildings’ interiors exceeded the cost of the building itself!

That hardly seems possible, but there it was. High-tech equipment – servers, mainframes, desktop computers, all kinds of specialized electronics –lay in ruins all of the floor. Drop ceilings literally dropped, spilling ceiling tiles and light fixtures everywhere. Water lines, now unhampered by any ceiling material, broke and continued to ruin what wasn’t already broken.

The three areas which seemed to cause the most damage was: 1) Lack of attaching equipment – even though the brackets were there! – or were cheap and easy to install – such as the straps to attach lap-top equipment. 2) The use of bolts that were too small, too weak for their purpose – he recommended at least 5/8-inch bolts, and 3) the widespread use of drop ceilings. Drop ceilings, while cheap and easy to install, universally caused damage everywhere they were used. His recommendation – stop using them. It will be cost effective in the long run to install hard ceilings instead.

So, go to work, your mall, your favorite store and look around. If things started to shake, what would be left standing? Hopefully, YOU, because objects stayed in place, where they should. And you could walk out to tell about it.

The Policies of Earthquake Preparedness

The Sunday, July 24, 2011 Los Angeles Times (Op-Ed, page A26) had an excellent and quite thought provoking article on the relationship between a disaster’s outcome and a country’s public policies. Claire Berlinski, the article’s author, stated that while there is a popular belief that a country’s preparedness is inextricably linked to a country’s economic wealth there is much more to that story.

The images from Haiti were startling and heart-breaking. Everyone could see the shoddy construction of the homes, schools, hospitals and businesses led to massive death and destruction by the 7.0 magntitude earthquake last January (2010). Over 200,000 people died and forced a million and a half to live in camps.

Speed over to Concepcion, Chile, that endured an 8.8 shaker that moved the entire city to the west 10 feet. Sadly, 521 people died in this city, but this quake shook an urban population 180 times HARDER than Haiti, yet look at the difference. The city of over 200,000 citizens and another 700,000 in the surrounding area had much less damage. Let’s be clear, though -- buildings collapsed, bridges fell, homes were destroyed. Concepcion experienced an extraordinarily hard shake, but you can’t help but note the difference between the two areas.

Why? Building codes and diligence. As Ms. Berlinski so pointedly states, Chile has “some of the strictest and most advanced building codes in the world, and because the codes do not merely exist on paper – they are enforced.” And look at Japan. Granted this country was hit hard by the nuclear power plant disaster and an unbelievable tsunami, but the earthquake itself did very little damage. And why? They changed the way they built buildings. They worked on shoring up those that needed it. They designed and invented ways to make buildings more earthquake resistent. Building codes and diligence.

And the link to a country’s economics? This may be a little more complex to sort out, particularly in countries like Haiti where corruption has its own political party, but look at Chile. The salary of an average Chilean worker is one-third that of the United States worker, yet their public policy has invested in itself and, in this case, most definitely saved lives.

So, what about your workplace or your school? Honestly, this may be difficult – albeit not impossible – information to get, but what about your house? Is it up to code? Is it bolted to the foundation? Is your masonry held together with rebar, or a kiss and a prayer? (My mother’s favorite saying).

Can you, individual person, make a difference? Sure you can. Start now. Find out about your city’s building codes with regard to earthquake proofing. Find out about your own house or apartment to see what it has or needs. You can do things yourself, such as bolting things inside, too, such as high bookshelves, heavy TV’s and cabinets. Talk to your city council and your state legislators and get your local codes to be strict AND enforced.

Don’t wait until things start falling down to remind you that a well-enforced building policy can go a long way to keep you and your house standing.

Reminder from Down Under

This week, on Tuesday, February 22, a 6.3 magnitude earthquake hit Christchurch, New Zealand. So far 145 are confirmed dead, with another 200 missing. Over 30,000 have no power, 62,000 are without water and at least 100,000 have no access to sewer service.

Adding insult to injury, this is the second big quake that hit New Zealand. On September 4, an even bigger quake hit nearly this same spot with a 7.1 magnitude jolt. Fortunately, because the quake hit in the very early morning hours, most people were not at work or on the streets, so no lives were lost, but a lot of older structures fell and the damage was city-wide and extensive.

To put these numbers into perspective, consider that Christchurch has a population of 348,000, or about 1/12 of New Zealand's population of 4 million. We have nearly that many in Orange County alone (3 million), but less than half of Los Angeles County's 10 million.

What do all these numbers mean? Think of it this way...imagine that a 6.3 or 7.1 magnitude earthquake hit in either Orange or La County... Thousands, not hundreds, could be missing. A million or more would be left without water, sewer or power. Access to freeways would likely be limited, at best, and life as we know it would come to a halt. And not for a day or two, but for weeks and probably months before a real semblance of normalcy would return.

If this scares you, that is not my intent. This is just a reminder that Mother Nature shows her self randomly and with no warning. So rather than being scared, get energized. Remember that being prepared for disaster is the best way to not only survive, but to survive well. I feel saddened when I see the images of those New Zealanders digging out of the rubble, but it does harden my resolve to keep typing and reminding that we all need to be prepared.

We just need to listen to Mother's occasional reminders. Even when she is “down under.”

I didn’t know I was pregnant until the baby came!

Seriously. There is a TV program now with this theme. Again, seriously, I asked myself. How could a woman possibly NOT know she was pregnant? I had 2 children and in the second month, I was visited by the Morning Sickness Fairy, who evidently loved me and stayed with me morning and night for half of my pregnancy. During the 3rd month, I started to have Braxton Hicks contractions, which persisted until I delivered. Not to mention that basketball-sized object that appeared in my belly. So, seriously, how can you not know?

To be fair, I did hear about the one surprised mother who was quite overweight and had a very small, premature baby, even while on birth control. Ok, maybe it could happen, but...

Where I see a parallel to this blog is the person who lives in Southern California and still is in denial of where he or she lives. This is Earthquake Country, friend! You can deny it all you want, but the geology is clear. The periodic small to medium tremblers are whispers in all of our ears. The Big One is coming.

To be fair to these individuals, we really don’t know when the statistically given event will take place. It could be while I am typing this, or 100 years from now. The only problem is that the last “big one” to occur in this neck of the woods was about 150 years ago and, their occurrence has been historically about every...150 years!

I don’t like being the Chicken Little type who is constantly yelling the “Earth is going to shake, the earth is going to shake!” However, I would rather be more like your friend gently urging you to find ways, even little ways, every day to protect yourself in the event of a disaster. It might not even be an earthquake. Maybe it is a flood, or a wide-range power outage, or anything else that disrupts your daily life.

Whatever it is, you shouldn’t be totally surprised when it happens. At least you can say, “I saw it coming.”