Monday, October 29, 2012

Trick or Treat?




The concept of trick or treating probably originated with the Celts more than 2,000 years ago.  On the evening of October 31st every year, Celtic people would provide offerings around a bonfire for their dearly departed who would return that night for an earthly visit.  To drive away the unwanted spirits who inevitably would want to crash the party, the clever Celts would dress in costume to scare the nasty rascals away.  Several versions of this have changed throughout the centuries, but the basic idea of a disguise and offerings of food remain today.  Costumes of aliens, superheroes and French maids are certainly a spin on the original animal skin disguise – and have improved the odor substantially – they all allow the wearer to be someone else, if only for a night, ward off an evil spirit or two, and get a couple candy bars to boot!

Depending on your age (and some would note, gender) one could spend a lot of time in a costume selection.  Youngsters start imagining themselves in a variety of popular garbs almost the minute that multi-colored maple leaves start appearing on school bulletin boards.  The concept of costume pre-planning drops significantly, however, as children age and turn into young adults.  As I have witnessed the male members of my family, pre-planning really means, “What can you (wife/mom) put together for me as a costume?  Oh, and I need it in an hour…”

Pre-planning for anything seems to improve with age, perhaps because we are more aware of our mortality, or because we have more experience with times when a lack of pre-planning created its own disaster.  The irony is that we can and will plan for things that we have experienced or gives us a good feeling.  Planning for a birthday or anniversary may be work, but you see the results and in a positive way.  Planning for something you have either not experienced or just can’t imagine is often something people put off indefinitely.

Disaster planning (or more correctly emergency preparedness!), however, is really not difficult, but it is hard because it reminds us that bad things can and do happen.  Maybe we should just think of it as a choice between the comfort of being ready for a disaster or crisis, or the chaos and harm that comes with the bad stuff when we don’t. 

 So, when we think of it, it comes down to the same thing – “Trick or treat?”

Friday, October 26, 2012

Galileo, we feel your pain



This week’s verdict in Italy struck a particularly painful spot for scientists, especially geologists.  Seven seismologists who are highly respected in the geological community, were sentenced to several counts of manslaughter because they did not predict and give sufficient warning to the people of L'Aquila in 2009 that a major earthquake would hit. (1)  In this lovely historic town, over 300 people died, and apparently, the Italian public wanted someone to pay for it.

Galileo, as you all remember, was a brilliant scientist with visions beyond his time who got sentenced to life-long house arrest for bucking the mainstream thought with his crazy idea that the earth revolves around the sun.  He must be rolling over in his grave now wondering why the Italian government still doesn’t get science!

Predictions of anything are tricky.  Take the weather.  Generally, the forecasters are correct for that day but once in a while even a day’s prediction does not turn out the way we thought.  The longer ahead into the future the predictions, the less likely they are correct.  Honestly, I wonder if there really isn’t a big dial they spin, like on Wheel of Fortune, where landing on “Rain” here is like losing a turn.  At least with weather, we can look at the skies, pressure fronts and jet streams to give us a good idea, but earthquakes?  Regardless of those that swear there is “earthquake weather” or that their dog or cat acted funny days before the quake, there really are no good predictors as to when, where or how big an earthquake will hit.

Where does that leave those of us in the business of trying to get people prepared?  I’m a pretty optimistic person who tries to see preparedness as something you do as a positive thing – so bad things will have a minimal impact -- but there will always be some people who need that stab of fear to act.  Remember Chicken Little?  She ran around and got everyone worked up that the sky was falling.  Then she took 5 of her closest friends to the fox who ate them all, where, in Italy, they would have deserved it. 

Truthfully, the sky is not falling.  That is for sure, but there are many other things that are unpredictable in our lives.  But being unpredictable does not mean never.  Earthquakes WILL happen.  A major flood WILL hit Southern California.  A major fire WILL destroy large areas of the county.  When?  I don’t know.  All I am saying, friends, is just be ready for whatever.  There really is a nice feeling in knowing you are prepared.